Clarity Act Passage Odds Fall to 48% as Jefferies Warns of Volatility

Jefferies told clients on Tuesday that the fight over the Clarity Act could rattle crypto markets in the coming weeks. The market structure bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee on a bipartisan 15-9 vote earlier this year, but the bank's analysts, led by Andrew Moss, said the hard part is still ahead. Polymarket bettors now put the odds of passage by the end of 2026 at 48%, down from 70% in mid-May.

A tight legislative calendar

The math is tight. Lawmakers have roughly 20 legislative days before the August recess to merge the competing Senate drafts and reconcile them with the House bill before it reaches President Trump. Miss that window, Jefferies said, and Clarity could slip to next year or beyond, especially if Democrats take the Senate in November. Worries over ethics provisions and illicit finance are already dragging on its odds.

What passage would unlock

Clarity is the bill the industry cares about most. It would finally settle when a digital asset is a security policed by the SEC and when it is a commodity under the CFTC, replacing years of guesswork. Passage, Jefferies said, would give banks and asset managers the durable framework they need to expand custody and tokenization. The bank also expects it to broaden crypto ETFs beyond bitcoin and ether and to reopen the pipeline for crypto infrastructure IPOs.

A delay keeps the current patchwork in place. Recent regulatory guidance has improved the picture, but the report noted that agency actions can be unwound by the next administration, which could push regulated institutions to slow blockchain projects while they reassess legal risk. Jefferies expects the legislative back-and-forth to move crypto-linked equities including Circle, Coinbase and Bullish, the CoinDesk owner, plus select tokens.

Circle's stablecoin exposure

Circle's case is the messiest. The current bill would reportedly close a loophole that lets third parties like Coinbase pay rewards on USDC, which could slow the stablecoin's growth. A delay would buy Circle time to build out payments and diversify beyond reserve income. Either way, Jefferies said, the bigger threat is competition, not Congress, as banks and fintechs roll out rival stablecoins with wider distribution. JPMorgan made a similar timing call this month: with the calendar tightening before the midterms and the fight over stablecoin yield unsettled, the window to pass anything this year is narrow.