Balchunas Says Bitcoin's 8% Rebound Isn't a Trend Yet
Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $750 million last week, but Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas says nine months of long-term selling could still cap the rally.
Bitcoin is up roughly 8 percent since the Fourth of July, and money is moving back into spot ETFs. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas is not ready to call it a turn. Measured from the 250th anniversary of US independence, that gain outran most other assets over the same stretch. It is a real move. Balchunas just will not say yet whether it marks the start of a durable uptrend or one more bounce inside a longer grind.
The ETF Signal
The clearest sign of renewed appetite sits in the fund data. US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in about $750 million of net inflows over the past week, a rebound from the weaker demand that shadowed Bitcoin's earlier slide. When the price fell, appetite for these funds faded. Now it is back, and back in size. Balchunas reads the return of ETF demand as genuine, strengthening again in step with the price. The demand and the price have climbed in parallel.
He is careful about what it proves, though. A recovery after a sharp pullback did not surprise him, and a bounce on its own says little about where the price travels next. The move is real. The direction it implies is not yet clear.
One good week does not make a trend.
Nine Months of Selling
The heaviest weight on the price, in his telling, has come from Bitcoin's longest-tenured holders. Investors who have been in the market for years have been selling for roughly nine months, and that steady stream of supply has pressured the price the whole way down. It is the kind of persistent selling that caps a rally before it can build real momentum. The pattern is old, and by his account still running.
Balchunas frames the upside plainly. If those long-term holders stepped back, Bitcoin would have room for a stronger recovery than the one on the tape now. Until they do, a single week of ETF inflows is a data point, not a confirmation. The next stretch of fund flows will settle more than the last one did.
Sources
- Bloomberg Senior Analyst Examines Bitcoin: “Signs of a Recovery Are Growing…”
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